It’s gorgeous at the Jack Wallace track today, just this red mondo oval protected by trees on one side and an accolades wall on the other, and an expanse of bright sky. If there is any wind it’s outside our tourbillon; we are protected from it here inside the fence. Our January temperature is 8 degrees. Doors open from cars in the parking lot and runners step out into the sunshine. Here we have Bruce Deacon, Olympian. Here is Kris Swanson, one of Canada’s top mountain runners. Racing flats tied by the laces and horseshoed around necks. Geoff Martinson is wearing a toque. Honestly it’s warm on the track, but here comes Geoff in a toque, gloves, a jacket over his long-sleeve, and running tights. “Dude,” I say.

“I stuck my hand outside the door before I left,” he tells me. “It felt cool.”

“You didn’t bring shorts?”

“I didn’t think I’d need them!”

Seven of us start the workout. We’re running a classic V02 max workout. Hard 1200m reps with harder 400m reps in between. I did some stats yesterday. I’m working on a regression formula for predicting race times, using two other race times as data points. Building your unique profile. Your unique decay. Most people slow down by 5% when the race distance doubles, and nearly everyone falls within a 3% to 7% range. Mine’s close to 3%. Is it possible to take a 400m time and a 10 000m time and predict all other race times? It is.

So based on my stats I should be somewhere around 15:20 for a 5km right now. Let’s aim for 3:40 on the 1200m reps.

Geoff is 20 meters ahead after 100m. He splits the 1km in 2:48. Click your stopwatch when he finishes. 3:21. The small dots in the distance? The rest of us, and I’m at the back of the pack. My 1200m is 3:42.

It’s not far off where I figured I should be. What’s troublesome is I feel awful. I feel like I did in the Times Colonist 10km last April. No power. I can’t generate enough power to work hard. My heart rate is cottage-scene peaceful, at sub-threshold.

I get through the first 400m rep, a 70, and jam on the rest of the workout. There’s no reason to continue. It’s not my day to work hard. I sit on the second step of the bleachers and wait for the others to finish. Here they come. Geoff looks like he’s jogging, but his splits are consistent and good. After the workouts he tells me he wasn’t getting down to where he’d like to be, but he was only a second or two off.  I'm burning to see this guy in a track race.

One race on my 2014 resumé, a 25:17 8km a couple of weeks ago. This Garmin 620 is nearly omniscient. Back then it predicted a 31:22 10km. I’ve done the stats. A 25:17 8km on that course would convert to a 31:26 at the Vancouver Sun Run 10km.

My updated 2014 bests: 1km: 2:59 1 mile: 4:48 5km: 15:34 10km: 35:02 Half marathon: still haven’t run more than 16km this year on a single run.

My latest Garmin 620 race predictions, based on HR variability, are: 5km: 14:59 10km: 30:59 Half marathon: 1:08:17